Election Poll Proposal
Prediction of election results has been a common practice in countries across the world, the US being one of them. In the US, prediction of election results has been done by various organizations, research companies, and journal companies. This paper focuses on proposals recommended by the Utah State Journal that will help predict the forthcoming election results. It recommends that election prediction should be done by a large number of potential voters; hence, the best proposal is that which involves an internet survey where more potential voters are approached to give their opinion about the forthcoming elections in the US.
Focusing on the three proposals received by the Utah State Journal in the US, analysis or discussion of the advantages and disadvantages of each of the three journals is important. First, proposal one involves a telephone poll conducted by the Gallup Organization. The advantage of this proposal is that by interviewing the voters through telephone, the interviewer is able to note down the response rate and be sure of the number of people who give their responses. For instance, the first proposal looks forward to obtain 800 completed interviews, expecting a response rate of 45%. The disadvantage of this proposal is that the expected number of completed interviews may not be achieved, as there is a possibility of not reaching other voters through the telephone. Besides, making phone calls to the voters may be time consuming and tiresome.
Secondly, proposal two involves a mail survey of all voters registered in Utah as of October 1st and who have attended a recent local caucus. The advantage of this proposal is that a large number of completions is expected, that is, 1600. Besides, it is obvious that all the voters will be reached through mails. However, the disadvantage of this proposal is that there may be delays in the delivery of the mails and this might not be effective in predicting the election results.
The third proposal involves an internet survey that will be conducted by Harris-Interactive. The advantage of this proposal is that several voters can be reached to give their opinions about the elections. For instance, the opinions are to be obtained from a panel of several million volunteers with e-mail addresses, who have indicated their willingness to complete questionnaires. This proposal is set to obtain over 3,000 completions, far much higher than the previous proposals. The expected response rate is 30%, also higher than that of the previous proposals.
In as much as the three proposals will be used, proposal three is clearly superior to the other two proposals. This is because it is set to obtain several completions (3000) as compared to the others. Besides, the response rate is better than those of the other two proposals. It should also be noted that using an Internet survey is faster and more voters can be reached at a particular time.
Most of the data from the surveys will be obtained through sampling, which is a practice that focuses on the selection of a few individuals or items from within a population to represent the characteristics of the whole group of items or individuals. When doing sampling, the group of items or individuals that possesses the characteristics that the researcher is often interested in is known as the sampling population. The three proposals should focus on identifying every voter, and this is possible by putting in place sampling frames, such as electoral registers and telephone directory. However, when doing sampling, there are possible biases, such as the selection bias where there will be a difference between the true selection probabilities and those that will be assumed in the calculation of results.
In conclusion, this paper recommends the adoption of proposal three, as it is more effective. This is because using the Internet survey will help reach a huge number of possible voters and there is a higher expectation of the completions and the response rate.